In a memorable episode of Schitt's Creek, Moira Rose (played by the gone-too-soon Catherine O’Hara, whose death I’ve STILL not quite accepted as fact) is asked what her favorite season is, to which she dryly replies: “Awards.” Well, we’ve finally reached the apex of Awards Season—the “Super Bowl of Cinema,” the “Grand Poobah of Film Excellence”—the Oscars! 

We’ve seen honors handed out by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the Directors, Producers, and Screen Actors Guilds, plus a varying list of critics from a vast spectrum of cities across the globe. But of course, all roads lead to the Academy Awards, and this year the annual celebration—now in its 98th year—seems a toss-up between underground political revolutionaries and vampire-fighting bootleggers. 

But, could a Shakespeare biopic about ANOTHER Shakespeare or the 1,000th+ adaptation of the most reanimated monster in gothic literature cause an upset? Is it possible for a political thriller about a secret agent or a satirical black comedy about secret aliens to come from behind? 

Anything is possible on Oscar night! 

But before we start fussing over the night’s biggest hits or misses, here’s a rundown of some of the major categories and my predictions of who we might see coming up to the podium inside the Dolby Theater:

Best International Feature Film

It Was Just an Accident (France)
The Secret Agent (Brazil)
Sentimental Value (Norway)
Sirat (Spain)
The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

A Safe Bet: Sentimental Value
A Possible Upset: The Secret Agent

Out of the five nominees, I’ve seen four (better luck next time, Voice of Hind Rajab!). Of those four, three received multiple nominations and of those three, two are nominated in the Best Picture category. That narrows this contest down to The Secret Agent (which won the Golden Globe) and Sentimental Value (which won the BAFTA). Who will ultimately stand alone? With eight nominations—twice that of Secret Agent—including four for acting and one for director Joachim Trier, my money’s on Sentimental Value to take the Oscar back home to Norway, giving the country its first win in this category!

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value

A Safe Bet: Sean Penn
A Possible Upset: Stellan Skarsgard

A two-time Oscar winner already, I expected Penn’s performance to be recognized, but not seriously considered (I mean, share the love, right?). This would allow an underappreciated acting veteran like Skarsgard to rack up the accolades for a moving performance as an absent father trying to make amends with his daughters. He came on strong with a Golden Globe win, but a few missed nominations from other notable awards has given Penn the chance to scoop up those highly influential BAFTA and Actor (formerly known at the Screen Actors Guild) Awards in the process. It could give Penn just enough edge to score his THIRD victory!

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

A Safe Bet: Amy Madigan
A Possible Upset: Wunmi Mosaku or Teyana Taylor

This category is truly a crapshoot, as other award ceremonies have recognized nearly every nominee in this category. The National Board of Review saluted Lilleaas, while the BAFTAs honored Mosaku, and Taylor kicked things off with a Golden Globe win at the start of the season. Surprisingly, it’s been former nominee Amy Madigan who now holds the record for longest gap between nominations (her last nod occurred 40 years ago for a film entitled Twice in a Lifetime, how ironic!) who appears the frontrunner, having won both the Critics Choice and Actor awards. Still, she’s the only one in a film NOT nominated for Best Picture, which can sometimes affect your chances of getting noticed by those Academy voters who lazily only watch the BP nominees!

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

A Safe Bet: Michael B. Jordan
A Possible Upset: Timothee Chalamet

In the beginning, it seemed like Chalamet had it in the bag. A two-time Oscar nominee already, he started off strong with back-to-back wins at the Critics Choice and Golden Globe Awards. Then came trouble. First, he lost the BAFTA to a guy whose film didn’t even come out in the US (let alone get nominated for a Best Actor Oscar!). Next, the Screen Actors Guild resoundingly awarded the Actor Award to Jordan. Then, this social media nightmare revolving around his recent remarks describing opera and ballet as a dying art has nearly knocked the wind out of his sails, causing his chances to significantly dwindle. But also, Oscar voters have historically NOT handed out Best Actor trophies to young leading men, particularly ones who give their teenage daughters the swoons. That could leave plenty of room for a far hunkier, more mature heartthrob like Jordan to snatch it away for playing two distinct twins in the most nominated film of the year 

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia

A Safe Bet: Jessie Buckley
A Possible Upset: No one

With all apologies to Byrne, whose incredible performance earned her a Golden Globe win for Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy, the only consistent winner of this category so far has been Buckley. A Globe winner in Drama (typically Oscar bait!), Buckley also earned accolades from the Critics Choice, BAFTAs, and Actors Guild. Hope she made room in her trophy case, because the Oscar is going in there! 

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Chloe Zhao, Hamnet

A Safe Bet: Paul Thomas Anderson
A Possible Upset: Ryan Coogler

Sometimes after a celebrated filmmaker has consistently churned out one modern classic after another—Boogie Nights, There Will Be Blood, The Master, JUST to name a few—they FINALLY cross that Oscar finish line with their next big critically acclaimed hit. And this is Anderson’s Oscar to lose. It doesn’t hurt that he collected a win from the Directors Guild, which typically predicts this category's winner as well. His closest competition comes from newbie Coogler, but my hunch is that Coogler will have to wait his turn and settle for a Best Original Screenplay as a consolation prize for now (and that ain't too shabby!).

Best Picture

Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams

A Safe Bet: One Battle After Another
A Possible Upset: Sinners

Receiving the most Oscar nominations in any given year is one thing, but to receive THE most in Academy Awards history? That’s impressive! With a new category added to the list, Sinners received a whopping 16 nominations, which gave it a little momentum going into the Oscar race. But that doesn’t always suggest most wins. Despite the superlatives, I still see One Battle After Another taking Best Picture, as it has essentially been awarded the top prize at every other awards event. Plus, there's a little bit more prestige behind its Thomas Pynchon material, with an ensemble of former Oscar winners and written, produced, and directed by one of Hollywood’s most respected filmmakers (plus, and perhaps I'm being a tad biased here, Sinners to me was just sort of taking From Dusk till Dawn and relocating it to a juke joint during the Great Depression). One Battle After Another also just feels so timely right now, with a title that seems ever so appropriate in describing our current state of the nation. It's a film that'll be on a lot of voters’ minds as they fill out their ballots, so I expect it'll claim many other victories on Oscar night as well.

Will my predictions come true? There’s only one way to find out: The 98th Academy Awards airs live on ABC (apparently for the LAST time!) March 15 at 6 p.m. (CST), and will be available to stream live on Fubo TV, Hulu, and YouTube.